Horse Race Handicapping Tip: Money Management Is The Key To Winning
Money management is the key to winning when handicapping and betting on horse races. Selecting a solid money management system is essential, but even the best money management system in the world won't work if you don't have a sufficient number of winners at the right price.
One of the worst money management systems I've come across is due-column wagering. It's a form of progression wagering whereby you determine how much money you want to make and then wager enough money on each of your selections so that when you have a winner you have achieved your goal.
As an example, suppose you want to win $3.00 on a race where the favorite is going to post at even money. You would wager $3.00 on the horse. If you lost that wager, you would then add together your $3.00 loss on the first race with the amount "due" in the first race. You would then add to that sum the $3.00 "due" you for the second race. You now need to wager enough money on your selection in the second race to make $9.00. Sounds simple, but is it feasible in practice?
I recently tested put due-column wagering to see if it would work. I set as my goal a $100 profit for the day. Since favorites win roughly 33% of the time, I chose to use the favorite in every race I played. I spread my goal of $100 over 33 races, seeking to profit just $3.00 per race.
I have an online wagering account where I can watch and bet on races from all over the country. Listed below are the results of the first eight races I encountered.
Track/Race: PHA-1. Due: $ 3.00. The odds: 3/2. The bet: $ 2.00. The result: Lost.
Track/Race: TAM-1. Due: $ 8.00. The odds: 7/5. The bet: $ 6.00. The result: Lost.
Track/Race: PHA-2. Due: $ 17.00. The odds: 7/5. The bet: $ 12.00. The result: Lost.
Track/Race: TAM-2. Due: $ 32.00. The odds: 6/5. The bet: $ 27.00. The result: Lost.
Track/Race: BEU-1. Due: $ 62.00. The odds: 6/5. The bet: $ 52.00. The result: Lost.
Track/Race: PHA-3. Due: $117.00. The odds: 7/5. The bet: $ 84.00. The result: Lost.
Track/Race: TAM-3. Due: $204.00. The odds: 4/5. The bet: $255.00. The result: Lost.
Track/Race: BEU-2. Due: $462.00. The odds: 1/1. The bet: $462.00. The result: Won.
The odds listed above are the odds for the favorite as they appeared on the tote board at the time the horses were loading into the starting gate.
After seven straight loses, we finally had a winner that paid $4.20. We would have cashed tickets worth $970.20. Because the odds of the horse rose after we would have made our bet, we made a profit on eight races of $70.20, instead of the $24 we were seeking. Sounds great! But do you see the flaw in this system?
Notice that wagers get quite large after just a seven horse losing streak. Notice also that there was only one odds-on favorite in eight races. The results could have been much worse.
Some of you are going to look at this and say, "But, it worked!" Yes, it worked. We also got a bonus on the last wager when the odds on the horse went up from even money to 6/5 after the horses left the gate. But to wager $900 ($462 on the last race plus $438 in previous losses) in an attempt to win $24.00 is sheer lunacy. You're getting odds of 0.0267 for every dollar you've wagered. You can do nearly that well putting your money in a savings account (even in today's poor economy) and you won't risk the chance that your investment will break its leg in the home stretch.
I'm not going to bore you with the details, but later that day there was an 11 race losing streak that would have required a wager of $9,427 on the next race. Before you made that $9,427 wager you would have had losses of more than $11,000. As if that were not bad enough, this doesn't take into account the fact that as your wagers get larger, the odds are likely to get lower. You have to continually add to your wager, hoping the race doesn't start before you get just the right amount bet to make your "due".
In conclusion, not many people have the bankroll necessary to follow this type of wagering system. Even if they did, not many people have the courage to push that much money into the mutual pools for so little gain.
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One of the worst money management systems I've come across is due-column wagering. It's a form of progression wagering whereby you determine how much money you want to make and then wager enough money on each of your selections so that when you have a winner you have achieved your goal.
As an example, suppose you want to win $3.00 on a race where the favorite is going to post at even money. You would wager $3.00 on the horse. If you lost that wager, you would then add together your $3.00 loss on the first race with the amount "due" in the first race. You would then add to that sum the $3.00 "due" you for the second race. You now need to wager enough money on your selection in the second race to make $9.00. Sounds simple, but is it feasible in practice?
I recently tested put due-column wagering to see if it would work. I set as my goal a $100 profit for the day. Since favorites win roughly 33% of the time, I chose to use the favorite in every race I played. I spread my goal of $100 over 33 races, seeking to profit just $3.00 per race.
I have an online wagering account where I can watch and bet on races from all over the country. Listed below are the results of the first eight races I encountered.
Track/Race: PHA-1. Due: $ 3.00. The odds: 3/2. The bet: $ 2.00. The result: Lost.
Track/Race: TAM-1. Due: $ 8.00. The odds: 7/5. The bet: $ 6.00. The result: Lost.
Track/Race: PHA-2. Due: $ 17.00. The odds: 7/5. The bet: $ 12.00. The result: Lost.
Track/Race: TAM-2. Due: $ 32.00. The odds: 6/5. The bet: $ 27.00. The result: Lost.
Track/Race: BEU-1. Due: $ 62.00. The odds: 6/5. The bet: $ 52.00. The result: Lost.
Track/Race: PHA-3. Due: $117.00. The odds: 7/5. The bet: $ 84.00. The result: Lost.
Track/Race: TAM-3. Due: $204.00. The odds: 4/5. The bet: $255.00. The result: Lost.
Track/Race: BEU-2. Due: $462.00. The odds: 1/1. The bet: $462.00. The result: Won.
The odds listed above are the odds for the favorite as they appeared on the tote board at the time the horses were loading into the starting gate.
After seven straight loses, we finally had a winner that paid $4.20. We would have cashed tickets worth $970.20. Because the odds of the horse rose after we would have made our bet, we made a profit on eight races of $70.20, instead of the $24 we were seeking. Sounds great! But do you see the flaw in this system?
Notice that wagers get quite large after just a seven horse losing streak. Notice also that there was only one odds-on favorite in eight races. The results could have been much worse.
Some of you are going to look at this and say, "But, it worked!" Yes, it worked. We also got a bonus on the last wager when the odds on the horse went up from even money to 6/5 after the horses left the gate. But to wager $900 ($462 on the last race plus $438 in previous losses) in an attempt to win $24.00 is sheer lunacy. You're getting odds of 0.0267 for every dollar you've wagered. You can do nearly that well putting your money in a savings account (even in today's poor economy) and you won't risk the chance that your investment will break its leg in the home stretch.
I'm not going to bore you with the details, but later that day there was an 11 race losing streak that would have required a wager of $9,427 on the next race. Before you made that $9,427 wager you would have had losses of more than $11,000. As if that were not bad enough, this doesn't take into account the fact that as your wagers get larger, the odds are likely to get lower. You have to continually add to your wager, hoping the race doesn't start before you get just the right amount bet to make your "due".
In conclusion, not many people have the bankroll necessary to follow this type of wagering system. Even if they did, not many people have the courage to push that much money into the mutual pools for so little gain.
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