Opening Week Football Line Moves
The opening weekend of football is different from the other weeks for sports bettors, as the lines have been posted for several months at the majority of sportsbooks. Instead of having less than a week to decide on their wagers, bettors will have had roughly three months or so to choose which teams they are going to bet on.
When looking at the games that will take place in several weeks, there are a couple of things that bettors need to be aware of.
First is that the majority of bets that have been placed this far in advance typically aren't from the betting public. They come from sharps, or at least self-proclaimed sharp bettors, as the typical bettor won't make a play on those games until game day. Second, the number of bets is quite small on some games and the opinions of several bettors could have caused the dds to change. According to Sports Insights, as of Friday, Aug. 21, only 76 bets have been made on the Ohio at Idaho game. Three-fourths of the bets have come in on Ohio, yet the number moved from Ohio -10 to Ohio -9.5. What that tells you is that at least a few of the 19 people who bet on the Vandals are either respected by the sportsbooks or they made relatively large wagers.
College Football
One of the big games on opening weekend is Ohio State vs. Virginia Tech, as it was the Hokies who handed the Buckeyes their lone loss last season. Ohio State opened -14 and the line is down to 10.5 in the most-bet college game of the week so far.
Nearly 80-percent of the bets have come in on Ohio State, yet the line dropped dramatically, so the wise guys are on the underdog.
Other games with significant line moves are Oklahoma State going from -19 to -22 against Central Michigan; Duke going from -11 to -9.5 against Tulane; Tulsa going from -6 to -7 against Florida Atlantic; and Kentucky going from -13.5 to -15.5 against Lafayette. Notre Dame moved from -8.5 to -9.5 against Texas, but 9 is a "dead number" so the move isn't as meaningful as the move in the Tulsa game.
NFL Football
Most sportsbooks have taken down the line on the Patriots game in order to see what happens with quarterback Tom Brady. The Greek has New England favored by 2.5 over the Steelers, but that number will shoot up if Brady's suspension is overturned.
The Packers moved from -5 to -6 at Chicago, which is a decent-sized move that covers the number 6, while the Jets went from -2.5 to -3 against the Browns, another big move considering it now encompasses the key number of 3. Arizona also moved from -2.5 to -3 against New Orleans and Seattle went from -3 to -3.5 at St. Louis. The Bengals also moved from -3 to -3.5 in their game at Oakland.
The biggest move of the week has been the late Monday night game between the 49ers and Minnesota Vikings, where the 49ers opened as 3.5-point favorites and the game is now even. The game has been bet more than any other opening week game so far, although the Bears and the Packers are a close second.
Unlike college football, totals have been posted on all of the NFL games and those have remained somewhat consistent with little movement in the majority of the games.
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